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Wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, much lower than economists expected

Wholesale prices are cooling down faster than anyone expected. Despite the chaos in the Middle East, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose just 0.5% in March—way below the 1.1% analysts were bracing for. Even better, “core” inflation (which ignores the roller coaster of food and energy costs) barely moved, ticking up only 0.1%.

Gasoline and diesel prices are still the main culprits, with diesel alone soaring 42% last month. However, there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. Thanks to a recent ceasefire in Iran, crude oil prices have already dropped about 15% in the past week. Business owners also seem to be absorbing tariff costs rather than passing them all onto consumers, which is keeping the “services” side of the economy surprisingly stable.

Shopper are hoping for lower prices as inflation subsides and prices stabilize

What does this mean for your wallet? For now, the Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates right where they are. While annual inflation is still higher than the 2% target, the underlying data looks much less scary than the headlines suggest. If the peace holds and energy costs keep sliding, the “inflation burst” many feared might turn out to be a dud.

Rate Cuts on Ice: Why the Fed is Hitting the Brakes

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is sounding less dovish than previously. After months of calling for the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates to supercharge the economy, he’s now saying it’s okay to “wait and see.” This is a major pivot his previous stance where he called for interest rate cuts as a key ingredient missing for stronger growth.

So, what changed? The war in Iran. With oil prices recently surging past $100 a barrel, the Fed is stuck in a tough spot. They have to balance rising energy costs against a slowing economy. Lowering rates too soon could pour gasoline on the inflation fire, so the central bank is likely to hold steady for the foreseeable future.

Lower mortgage rates could provide some much needed relief to borrowers if interest rates go down

Adding to the uncertainty is a leadership shakeup at the Fed. Chair Jerome Powell’s term is up in May, but his potential replacement is currently stalled in the Senate due to political infighting. Between geopolitical conflict and D.C. gridlock, the era of cheap borrowing might be officially on the back burner.

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The Oil Tug-of-War: Blockades vs. Breakthroughs

Oil prices are finally sliding back toward $95 a barrel, but it’s not exactly a victory for consumers. The International Energy Agency (IEA) just warned that “demand destruction” is setting in—meaning prices have gotten so high that people and businesses are simply being forced to stop using fuel. It’s the sharpest drop in global consumption we’ve seen since the height of the pandemic.

This cooling comes as the U.S. shifts its strategy. Following a failed weekend summit, the military has officially started a “blockade” of Iranian ports. While this puts a stranglehold on Tehran’s oil exports, Vice President JD Vance says the door for peace is still cracked open. He’s made it clear that “the ball is in Iran’s court,” with rumors swirling that talks could even resume later this week.

Oil tankers won’t be allowed into our out of Iranian ports due to the current U.S. blockade

What’s the bottom line? While the blockade makes physical oil harder to find, the market is betting that a diplomatic deal is still possible. For your wallet, expect a tug-of-war: the IEA says fuel will stay scarce, but if those Islamabad talks actually get back on track, the “fear premium” driving up your gas bill could finally start to evaporate.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

Earlier this year, the heavy hitters at Goldman Sachs dropped a bombshell prediction: AI could impact roughly 300 million jobs globally. That’s not a small number—that’s a tectonic shift. We’re already seeing it in the wild, too. Big names like IBM have openly paused hiring for roles they think a computer can handle, and academic experts like Daron Acemoglu are sounding the alarm that this isn’t just a “phase.”

Naturally, this has people looking over their shoulders. Recent polling shows that one in five college-educated workers is genuinely worried that their degree might be outpaced by an algorithm.

But before we all start practicing our “Will work for electricity” signs, let’s take a breath and look at some history. Our friends over at Morgan Stanley recently dug into the archives to compare the AI boom to the tech revolutions of the past. Their conclusion? It’s actually a pretty hopeful story.

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The Great Spreadsheet “Scare” of 1987

Think back to the late 1970s and 80s. Before Microsoft Excel became the king of the office, “bookkeeping” was a grueling, manual labor of love involving paper ledgers and pencils. When digital spreadsheets arrived, everyone assumed the accounting industry was headed for the scrap heap.

Here is what actually happened between 1987 and 2000:

• The Decline: The number of Americans working as bookkeepers or clerks dropped from 2 million to 1.5 million.

• The Explosion: In that same window, the number of actual accountants rose from 1.3 million to 1.5 million.

• The “New” Jobs: Even more impressive, the number of management analysts and financial managers surged from 600,000 to 1.5 million.

Workers were much less productive before the invention of computers, which made them much more valuable as their productivity increased

In plain English: The software didn’t kill the industry; it just automated the “grunt work,” which freed up humans to do higher-level thinking. We traded data entry for data analysis.

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The ATM Paradox

We saw the exact same thing with the ATM. When those machines first started popping up on street corners, people predicted the death of the bank teller. But something funny happened. Because ATMs made it cheaper for banks to operate individual branches, they started opening more branches.

And who do you need to staff those branches? More tellers. The job changed from “counting $20 bills” to “helping customers with loans and credit cards,” but the headcount actually went up.

The Productivity Playbook

The pattern is clear: Technological innovation usually leads to increased productivity and lower prices. When things get cheaper and more efficient, it creates room for entirely new products and services that we couldn’t even imagine ten years ago.

The Reality Check: While the “macro” picture looks good, the “micro” picture can be tough. If you are the bookkeeper who gets replaced by a program, it’s cold comfort to hear that there are plenty of new jobs for “Financial Managers” if you don’t have the training for that role.

The Bottom Line

We aren’t looking at a “jobless” future, but we are looking at a “different-job” future. The real challenge of the AI era isn’t going to be a lack of work—it’s going to be the massive demand for reskilling.

As Morgan Stanley points out, we’re going to need a serious, coordinated effort between the government and the private sector to help workers level up. The tools are getting smarter, which means we have to get smarter at using them.

History shows us that the “robots” aren’t here to take our place; they’re here to take the boring parts of our jobs so we can do something more interesting. We just have to make sure everyone has a map for the transition.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

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Pakistan prepared to host U.S.-Iran talks in ‘coming days’ as Trump weighs deploying ground troops.

Could a breakthrough be coming? Pakistan is stepping up to host peace talks between the U.S. and Iran. Both sides have reportedly expressed confidence in Islamabad to mediate, providing a rare glimmer of hope as the conflict enters its second month.

But don’t exhale just yet. While diplomats talk, the Pentagon is preparing for a potential ground invasion. Thousands of U.S. Marines just arrived in the region, and President Trump is weighing whether to green-light “boots on the ground” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s response has been blunt, threatening to “set American troops on fire” if they land.

The negotiations would take place in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad

The economic fallout is spreading fast. Iran recently attacked a massive aluminum smelter in Bahrain, sending metal prices to four-year highs. Meanwhile, oil has surged toward $100 a barrel as the Houthis join the fray, threatening to choke off even more global shipping routes.

Whether this ends at a table in Pakistan or with a full-scale invasion remains the $100-per-barrel question. For now, the world is watching the calendar as a 10-day “pause” on energy strikes counts down toward April 6.

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Trump signs order to pay TSA employees after Congress fails to agree on DHS funding

President Trump just stepped in to stop the bleeding at our airports. With the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) shutdown hitting a record 44 days, he signed an executive order to pay TSA workers using “emergency” funds. The goal is to get paychecks to officers immediately and shorten the massive security lines that have been jamming up travel nationwide.

Travelers have been experiencing delays at major airports due to the TSA shortage created by Congressional gridlock

While this is a win for travelers, the political gridlock is getting worse. The Senate passed a compromise to fund the TSA and FEMA, but House Republicans killed it because it left out funding for ICE and Border Patrol. Democrats refuse to budge on border cash until new rules are set for immigration raids, leaving both sides at a total standstill.

So, what’s the bottom line? TSA workers should start seeing paychecks as early as this week, but the rest of the DHS remains in the dark. With Congress now on a two-week recess, don’t expect a permanent fix for the record-breaking shutdown anytime soon. The travel headache is eased for now, but the systemic mess in D.C. continues.

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Not everyone can expect a bigger tax refund this year — what’s actually driving your result

Tax season is officially here, and the results of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” are finally hitting bank accounts. The average IRS refund is currently sitting at $3,571—up about $350 from last year—but certain filers are seeing much bigger windfalls.

The real winners are those taking advantage of new deductions for tips, overtime pay, and auto loan interest. According to the IRS, people using these specific new breaks are seeing checks nearly $800 higher than in 2025. Plus, a major bump to the standard deduction—now $31,500 for married couples—means most families are keeping more of their paycheck before they even start filing.

The average tax return is up 10% from last year, providing taxpayers with some much needed relief

What does this mean for you? Your actual “win” depends entirely on your specific situation, like how many extra hours you logged or if you’re a senior. While the administration is banking on these checks to sway voters ahead of the midterms, the “big beautiful” boost might be their biggest campaign tool. Just remember: the deadline to file is April 15.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

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The Math of Purchasing Power: Why Prices Fall When Rates Rise

There is a fundamental inverse relationship between interest rates and home prices. It isn’t just about the “cost of money”; it’s about Monthly Payment Capacity.

Most buyers don’t shop for a “price tag”—they shop for a monthly payment. When the Federal Reserve holds rates steady (or considers raising them), the 30-year fixed mortgage rate follows suit.

• The Impact: For every 1% increase in mortgage rates, a buyer’s purchasing power drops by roughly 10%.

• The Reality: A $2,500 monthly budget might have secured a $450,000 home last year. Today, that same budget might only cover a $400,000 home.

While buying a home has always been a key part of the American Dream, more and more people are being priced out of the housing market.

When buyers can simply afford less, sellers are eventually forced to lower their expectations to meet the market where it is. This is why high rates act as a gravity-like force, pulling home prices down (or at least keeping them flat) regardless of how much “demand” there is.

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The Iran War Factor: Energy Prices and the New Inflation Wave

The current situation in the Middle East has added a layer of complexity we haven’t seen in decades. Operation Epic Fury and the subsequent disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have sent energy prices skyrocketing.

Iran’s attacks on Energy Infrastructure have led to producers cutting back, which has sent energy prices skyrocketing for the past few weeks.

For the Fed, this is a nightmare scenario. Energy isn’t just “gas at the pump”—it is the cost of shipping groceries, heating homes, and running factories. When energy prices surge, headline inflation follows.

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The Fed’s Dilemma: Will Rates Go Higher?

Market sentiment has shifted. Just as we expected the Fed to begin easing, the March 2026 data shows inflation sticking at 2.7%. Jerome Powell’s recent commentary suggests that if energy-led inflation doesn’t cool, the Fed may be forced to raise interest rates again to prevent a 1970s-style stagflation cycle.

For the housing market, this means the “higher for longer” era is far from over. As long as the war in Iran continues to pressure global oil supplies, the downward pressure on home prices will remain the dominant theme of 2026.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

But as we push into 2026, is that conventional narrative still sound? Is gold, in fact, the smart-money move so many proclaim it to be?

For many investors, the shining allure of gold can obscure a complex reality. In today’s installment of The Market Dispatch, we deconstruct the popular gold narrative, exposing the critical factors that may make precious metals a far less impressive investment than you might think. We’re talking storage costs, a complete lack of productivity, and the uncomfortable truth that gold’s gains are often just the shadow cast by inflation.

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The Logistics Problem: It’s Heavy, Expensive, and a Security Nightmare

The first, most immediate, and least-talked-about challenge with physical gold is, well, it’s physical. It has to live somewhere.

Storing gold isn’t as simple as dropping it in a bank deposit box. For significant amounts, you’re looking at private vaulting services. These are not cheap. You pay for security, humidity control, and precise accounting.

Then there’s the issue of insurance. While your homeowner’s policy might cover a small amount of jewelry, insuring a serious investment position in bullion or coins is a specialized (and costly) rider. And let’s not forget the existential risk: if you store it yourself, you are now a target. If your gold is in a private vault, you are now a target for cyber-theft or sophisticated real-world heists.

These are storage and logistical costs that directly, and significantly, eat into any potential returns. Over a long time, the expense of holding an asset that does nothing can erode a significant portion of its perceived growth.

Gold is thought of as a store of value and a status symbol all throughout the world.

The Productivity Gap: Why Gold Never Pays You

This brings us to the most fundamental difference between gold and almost every other major asset class: gold is unproductive. It does not create value.

• Stocks pay you dividends, a share of the profits generated by an underlying company that is actively working to produce goods, services, and economic value.

• Bonds pay you interest, compensation for lending your capital to governments or corporations who use it for infrastructure, research, and growth.

• Real Estate generates rent; cash flow paid to you by tenants for the use of your property.

Gold just sits there. It never gets smarter. It never works harder. It never generates new gold. Its entire investment value is based on the hope that someone else will pay you more for it later than you paid for it today. This is the opportunity cost: capital tied up in gold is capital not participating in the dynamic growth of the productive economy. Over a 10- or 20-year period, this difference in compounding is absolutely massive.

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The Inflation Illusion: Relying on Devaluation for Gains

But what about its most celebrated role: as a hedge against inflation? Here, too, the reality is far more nuanced. While gold historically tends to rise alongside inflation, this isn’t intrinsic growth. It’s often just a reflection of the dollar’s (or euro’s, or yuan’s) loss of purchasing power.

Think of it like this: if a basket of goods costs $100 today, and after serious inflation, that same basket costs $200 tomorrow, and the price of gold similarly doubles from $1,000 to $2,000, did your gold “grow” in real value? The answer is no. Its purchasing power merely kept up with the devaluation of the currency. The real gain was zero.

Gold is expensive to store and insure, and it doesn’t produce any cashflows while it is being held in deposit.

The perception of gold as a “growth” asset is a potent but dangerous inflation illusion. Relying on a currency’s collapse to drive your portfolio’s “gains” is a high-risk, negative-sum approach, especially when compared to the active compounding power of productive assets that thrive on real economic expansion.

Sentiment and Volatility: The Shadow Over the Shining Asset

Finally, let’s acknowledge that for all its perceived solidity, gold is extremely volatile and sentiment-driven. Because it has no underlying cash flow to anchor its price, gold is uniquely susceptible to shifts in market psychology. Fear, panic, central bank activity, and purely speculative hype can send gold skyrocketing... or plunging.

The “peace of mind” that investors seek can evaporate overnight. During long periods of relative calm, gold can underperform for years, leaving investors with negative real returns after accounting for storage. The safe haven can quickly become a dead weight, locked up in an expensive vault, mocking the opportunity costs of the booming tech sector or emerging markets.

The Final Verdict: An Expensive Insurance Policy, Not a Productive Asset

Gold is not inherently bad. As part of a diversified portfolio, perhaps as a 5% or 10% allocation to hedge against the most extreme forms of systemic collapse, it serves a purpose. It’s like an insurance policy. It’s expensive to maintain, but you’re glad you have it in a total emergency.

But as a cornerstone investment? As a reliable engine of long-term wealth creation? The evidence for gold and other precious metals simply doesn’t hold up. The real costs of storage, the fundamental lack of productivity, and the reliance on currency devaluation make gold a far less attractive proposition than its legendary reputation would suggest. For the readers of The Market Dispatch, the takeaway is simple: understand what you are buying. Don’t confuse expensive insurance with a productive, wealth-building asset.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

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The Choke Point: Why the Strait of Hormuz Matters

The primary driver of the current spike isn’t just the war itself—it’s the geography. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil artery.

• The Volume: Roughly 20% of the world’s total petroleum liquids pass through this narrow seaway every day.

• The Reality: With reports of maritime traffic dropping by 80% and insurance companies pulling “war risk” coverage, that oil is effectively stranded.

20% of the world’s oil is transported through the Strait of Hormuz near Iran

When 20 million barrels of oil per day are suddenly put at risk, the market doesn’t wait for a shortage to happen—it prices it in immediately. This is why we saw Brent crude surge toward $120 per barrel in early Monday trading.

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The “Tax” on Main Street

Rising oil prices act as a “stealth tax” on every household. While Wall Street watches the tickers, Main Street feels it in three distinct ways:

1. The Pump: In cities like Dallas, regular gas prices have jumped over 30 cents in a single week, with averages now pushing well past $3.30.

2. Supply Chain Creep: Everything you buy—from groceries to furniture—must be shipped. When diesel prices soar, those costs are passed directly to the consumer.

3. The Fed’s Dilemma: Just as the Federal Reserve was considering rate cuts for 2026, this “energy inflation” may force them to keep rates higher for longer to combat rising costs.

Attacks on energy infrastructure such as oil refineries are also affecting gas prices

What Happens Next?

If the disruption to the Strait remains a “reactionary pause,” we could see prices stabilize. However, if the conflict becomes a prolonged blockade, analysts warn that $150 oil is no longer a “doomsday” scenario—it’s a mathematical probability.

For the average investor, the 2026 playbook has changed overnight. Protecting your purchasing power is no longer just a strategy; it’s a necessity.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

Iran’s Nuclear Capabilities Lead to “Operation Epic Fury”

Iran is officially knocking on the nuclear door. President Trump’s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, revealed that Tehran has amassed enough highly enriched uranium to build 11 nuclear bombs. Even more alarming? They could reportedly upgrade that material to weapons-grade in as little as one week.

The US Navy undertook a massive mobilization leading to “Operation Epic Fury”

During recent talks, Witkoff says Iranian negotiators weren’t just defiant—they were “proud.” They used their nuclear stockpile as leverage, flatly rejecting a U.S. offer to pay for their energy fuel in exchange for a 10-year freeze on enrichment. For the White House, this refusal was the ultimate proof that Tehran has no intention of dismantling its program.

This diplomatic dead-end is what triggered “Operation Epic Fury,” the high-stakes mission targeting senior Iranian leaders. By taking out key figures, the administration is signaling that Iran’s nuclear “red line” has been crossed. Moving forward, the strategy has clearly shifted from negotiation tables to targeted action to prevent a nuclear-armed regime.

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Investment Expert Steve Eisman on How “Operation Epic Fury” Affects Stocks

Steve Eisman, the legendary investor from “The Big Short,” has a clear message for anyone panicking over the U.S.-Iran conflict: ignore the noise. Despite the market turmoil following the strike on Iran’s supreme leader, Eisman says he hasn’t changed a single trade. He views the current situation as a long-term “positive” for the markets, even with the temporary spike in oil prices.

Historically, stocks have continued their performance even through periods of global instability like wars

History is on his side. Data going back to 1980 shows that geopolitical shocks rarely leave a lasting dent in the S&P 500, with most stocks recovering within a month. While the current bull market was already showing signs of fatigue, Eisman is doubling down on his support for the administration’s actions against what he calls a “death cult” regime.

What does this mean for your money? Don’t let the headlines drive your hand. This conflict may take longer to resolve than a typical news cycle, but the “Eisman Playbook” suggests that staying the course is the winning move. If history repeats itself, prices will likely be back to normal in two months, leaving the long-term market trajectory unscathed.

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Are Supply Chain Problems Coming Back?

Global shipping just hit a massive roadblock. Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, shipping giants like Maersk and MSC have suspended all operations through the Strait of Hormuz. This isn’t just a local issue—this narrow waterway handles 20% of the world’s oil. With the “tap” essentially being bypassed, vessels are now being rerouted thousands of miles around the southern tip of Africa.

The Strait of Hormuz represents a vital chokepoint for Oil and LNG worldwide shipments

The logistical headache is real. Rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope means longer transit times and higher costs for everything from fuel to sneakers. Analysts warn that even if the strait stays technically “open,” the threat of one-off attacks on tankers is enough to keep the market on edge and prices climbing. Industry experts describe a sense of “fatigue” as companies tear up contingency plans to deal with yet another geopolitical twist.

What’s the bottom line for your wallet? Expect higher container rates and potential supply chain delays as long as this conflict persists. While military experts doubt Iran can fully close the strait, the mere risk of disruption is already baked into the price of global trade. For now, the “Eisman Playbook” of staying the course is being tested by the reality of a much longer, more expensive journey for the world’s goods.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

We are living in the era of the “Two Economies,” a stark divide where the stock market vs Main Street economy are no longer even speaking the same language.

1. The AI Supercycle vs. The Labor Squeeze

The primary driver of the market’s record highs is the massive capital expenditure into AI infrastructure. Companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and the newly ascended Broadcom are seeing double-digit earnings growth. However, this “efficiency” often comes at the cost of the Main Street workforce.

While corporate profits soar, many sectors are seeing a “hiring freeze” in non-tech roles. The market rewards this margin expansion, but for the average worker, it feels like a period of high uncertainty and stagnant wage growth.

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2. The Wealth Effect: A K-Shaped Reality

The “Two Economies” is best described as a K-shaped recovery.

• The Upward Arm: Wealthier households, who own the majority of equities and real estate, are seeing a “wealth effect.” As asset prices rise, their spending remains robust, which further fuels corporate earnings.

Wealthier households have profited from the rise in equity prices and are fueling most of today’s consumer spending.

• The Downward Arm: The bottom 60% of earners, who hold little to no stock, are facing the brunt of “sticky” inflation. Even as headline CPI moderates to around 2.7%, the cumulative price increases since 2021 have left essential costs—housing, insurance, and groceries—at levels that outpace median income growth.

3. The Debt Trap: Delinquencies at a Decade High

Perhaps the most telling statistic of 2026 is the rise in household debt. Total U.S. household debt has surged to $18.8 trillion. While the stock market celebrates the “soft landing,” the “Main Street” reality is a transition into serious delinquency for credit cards and auto loans, which have hit their highest rates since 2017.

Prices of groceries have risen dramatically since the Covid-19 pandemic

For many, the Debt-To-Income ratio is no longer sustainable at current interest rates. This creates a “fragile expansion” where the top of the economy is booming on tech-led productivity, while the foundation is cracking under the weight of high borrowing costs.

4. Why the Disconnect Persists

Investors must remember that the stock market is a forward-looking indicator, while economic data like unemployment and sentiment are lagging indicators. The market is currently “pricing in” the benefits of future Fed rate cuts and the massive productivity gains promised by AI. Main Street, meanwhile, is living in the “now”—dealing with the reality of 7% mortgage rates.

What This Means for The Market Dispatch Readers

Navigating this divide requires a two-pronged strategy. While it is tempting to stay “risk-on” to capture the AI-driven market gains, one must remain wary of the consumer-led “rolling recession” that is still hitting small businesses and retail.

The “Two Economies” won’t stay separated forever. Eventually, the struggles of Main Street tend to catch up with the valuations of Wall Street. The question for 2026 isn’t if they will converge, but how painful that convergence will be.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

US economy added 130K jobs in January, delayed report shows

The January jobs report finally arrived after a government shutdown delay, and it brought some unexpected heat. Employers added 130,000 jobs last month—nearly double what economists predicted. With unemployment ticking down to 4.3%, the labor market is showing much more spark than many anticipated after a sluggish end to 2025.

Job growth in the United States since 2021 (courtesy of Fox Business)

It wasn’t all sunshine, though. The government also released its annual “benchmarking” revisions, which painted a much bleaker picture of last year. It turns out 2025 was far weaker than initially reported, with job gains revised down by nearly 900,000. Essentially, the private sector is currently doing the heavy lifting while the federal government continues to shrink, shedding another 34,000 jobs in January alone.

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Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January, less than expected

Finally, some good news for your grocery bill: Inflation took a breather in January. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 2.4% annually, hitting its lowest level since May 2025. This was even better than economists predicted and signals that the “nagging” inflation problem might finally be cooling off, despite the impact of recent tariffs on select goods.

Consumer Price Index Percentage Change Year over Year (courtesy of CNBC)

What’s driving the drop? Essential costs like rent and gas are stabilizing. Shelter costs—which make up a huge chunk of your monthly budget—rose only 0.2%, while energy prices actually fell. Even though airline fares jumped, prices for groceries and used cars stayed muted, providing some much-needed relief for families feeling the squeeze of this “K-shaped” economy.

For your wallet, this means the dream of lower interest rates is officially back on the table. Following this report, markets are now betting heavily on a rate cut by June. While the Fed is staying cautious for now, the data suggests that economic growth doesn’t have to mean higher prices—offering a glimmer of hope for a “soft landing” this summer.

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Zelenskyy plans major announcement on presidential election, referendum: report

President Zelenskyy is reportedly preparing a historic announcement for February 24th—the four-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion. According to the Financial Times, he is planning to call for both a presidential election and a nationwide referendum on a potential peace deal, with a target date of May 15th. This move marks a massive shift as the country continues to navigate life under martial law.

President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy meet at the White House (courtesy of Politico)

The timing isn’t a coincidence. The Trump administration is reportedly applying heavy pressure, linking future U.S. security guarantees to these votes as they aim to wrap up the war by June. While Zelenskyy publicly claimed he first heard about the specific May deadline from the press, he reiterated that he is “ready for elections”—but only if a ceasefire and international observers can guarantee a fair and safe process for both soldiers and citizens.

What’s the endgame? Recent talks in Abu Dhabi led to a successful 314-person prisoner swap, showing a rare spark of diplomacy, but a full peace deal remains a mountain to climb. Between heated territorial disputes and the logistical nightmare of voting in a war zone, Zelenskyy is walking a tightrope between domestic survival and international demands for an exit strategy.

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Credit card debt tops $1.28 trillion — consistent with ‘K-shaped’ economic divide, New York Fed research shows

Americans are officially deeper in debt than ever before, with credit card balances hitting a record $1.28 trillion. While spending looks strong on the surface, researchers at the New York Fed say we’re living in a “K-shaped” economy. This means while the wealthy are doing fine and spending freely, a growing number of families are struggling just to keep the lights on.

The divide is getting harder to ignore. Delinquency rates for credit cards, auto loans, and even mortgages are climbing, particularly in lower-income areas. With the average interest rate hovering around 20%, roughly 60% of cardholders are now carrying a balance from month to month—often just to cover essential expenses like groceries and rent.

President Trump has proposed a temporary 10% cap on credit card rates to provide some relief, but don’t expect it to happen without a fight. Big banks are already gearing up for a legal battle to block price controls, arguing it would actually limit credit access for the people who need it most. For now, the financial gap is only widening, leaving millions of Americans forced to perform “financial triage” every single month.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

The 2026 Turning Point: Gold vs. Treasuries

The most startling headline of the year so far has been the “Gold Flip.” For the first time since 1996, the total value of gold held by foreign central banks has surpassed their holdings of U.S. Treasuries. With gold prices hovering between $4,500 and $5,500 per ounce, nations are increasingly voting with their vaults.

This shift indicates that central banks are no longer viewing U.S. debt as the ultimate risk-free asset. Instead, they are turning to “neutral” assets—hard commodities that cannot be frozen by sanctions or devalued by a ballooning U.S. deficit, which recently crossed the $38 trillion mark.

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The Catalysts of De-dollarization

Several factors are converging to accelerate the search for a future of the US dollar as reserve currency that looks very different from the past:

• Geopolitical Weaponization: The use of the dollar as a tool for sanctions has prompted the BRICS+ bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and new members) to build parallel payment systems. The rumored “Unit”—a gold-backed digital trade currency—is no longer a theoretical concept but a growing strategic threat to the SWIFT network.

• Fiscal Stability & The Debt Ceiling: As of February 2026, the return of the U.S. debt limit has reignited political gridlock in Washington. Investors are wary of the Debt to GDP Ratio, which has reached levels that historically precede currency volatility.

• Monetary Policy Uncertainty: With the Federal Reserve transitioning leadership in early 2026 and navigating a “V-shaped” economic year, the dollar has seen significant swings. Lower interest rates in the first half of the year have narrowed the yield gap, making other currencies more attractive to global investors.

Share of over-the-counter foreign exchange transactions (Courtesy of the Federal Reserve)

The Case for Dollar Resilience

Despite the noise, the dollar isn’t going to vanish overnight. To understand the future of the US dollar as reserve currency, one must look at the alternatives.

1. Liquidity: The U.S. Treasury market remains the deepest and most liquid in the world.

2. No Clear Successor: While the Euro is stable, it faces its own structural growth issues. The Chinese Yuan (CNY) is growing but lacks the transparency and open capital markets required for a true global reserve leader.

3. The “Cleanest Dirty Shirt”: Even with its flaws, the U.S. economy—driven by a 2025-2026 boom in AI infrastructure and energy independence—remains more robust than most of its peers.

What This Means for Investors

The trend toward a multipolar monetary system is real and accelerating. We are moving away from a world of “Dollar Hegemony” toward one of “Currency Diversification.”

For the readers of The Market Dispatch, this suggests a long-term strategy of diversification. Increasing exposure to hard assets (gold, silver), keeping an eye on BRICS-led trade developments, and maintaining a healthy skepticism of “risk-free” government paper are the keys to navigating this transition.

The dollar may not be losing its crown today, but it is certainly sharing the throne.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

Trump taps veteran Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed!

President Trump has officially picked Kevin Warsh to serve as the next Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Warsh, a central bank veteran who served during the 2008 financial crisis, was described by the President as “central casting“ and a leader who “will never let you down.” The move signals a desire for a fresh start at an institution Trump has frequently criticized.

Former Governor of the US Federal Reserve and Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh (Courtesy of CNBC)

While the White House is hoping for aggressive rate cuts to jumpstart the housing market and lower debt costs, Warsh’s track record is more complex. He has previously warned that keeping interest rates near zero for too long can “distort markets.” This means he may prove to be more independent and cautious than the administration expects once he takes the helm.

The path to confirmation also faces a major political hurdle. Republican Senator Thom Tillis has vowed to block any Fed nominees until the Justice Department’s investigation into the central bank’s $2.5 billion headquarters renovation is fully resolved. If confirmed, Warsh would represent a sharp philosophical shift from Jerome Powell’s consensus-driven approach.

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Silver plunges 30% in massive “Red Friday” crash!

Silver just had its worst day since 1980, plummeting a staggering 31% in a single afternoon. Gold followed suit, dropping about 11% to settle near $4,745. After a record-breaking 2025 where metals seemed untouchable, this sudden crash served as a massive reality check for investors who had crowded into the trade.

Silver prices dropped dramatically on Friday

The catalyst? Ironically, it was the Kevin Warsh nomination. His pick for Fed Chair actually relieved fears that the central bank would lose its independence, causing the U.S. Dollar to spike. Since metals are priced in dollars, a stronger greenback makes them more expensive, spoiling the theory that gold would soon replace the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

Gold prices saw a massive decline in price on Friday

Market experts are calling this “forced selling.” Many short-term traders were using borrowed money to bet on silver’s rise, and when prices dipped, it triggered massive “margin calls”—essentially forcing them to sell everything at once. While the long-term narrative for precious metals is still there, the “easy money” phase of the rally has hit a major wall.

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Fed hits the “pause” button on rate cuts!

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates exactly where they are—in the 3.5% to 3.75% range—officially halting a streak of three straight cuts. The central bank noted that while the economy is expanding at a “solid pace,” inflation remains a bit too high for comfort. Essentially, they’ve decided to take a breather and see if those previous cuts are doing their job before making another move.

Federal Reserve keeps rates steady for its first meeting of 2026

The decision wasn’t unanimous, though. Two Trump-appointed governors actually voted to keep the cuts coming, highlighting a growing rift within the bank. Meanwhile, Chair Jerome Powell is navigating his final months at the helm under heavy fire, facing a DOJ subpoena regarding the Fed’s massive $2.5 billion headquarters renovation.

So, what’s next for your wallet? With GDP growth booming at over 5%, the Fed is shifting its focus from “saving jobs” to “fighting prices.” Most experts don’t expect another rate adjustment until at least June. For now, the central bank is playing it safe, waiting for more data to prove that inflation is truly heading back to their 2% target.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

As we move into early 2026, with the Federal Funds Rate sitting in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, understanding these tools is no longer optional—it’s a survival skill for your finances.

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The Federal Reserve’s Power Tools

The Fed doesn’t just have a single “interest rate” button. They use a combination of levers to influence how much money is flowing through the system:

1. The Federal Funds Rate (FFR): This is the “Godfather” of rates. It’s what banks charge each other to lend money overnight. When this goes up, it becomes more expensive for your bank to do business, and they pass those costs directly to you.

2. FOMC - Open Market Operations (The Balance Sheet): The Fed buys and sells government bonds. Buying bonds pumps cash into the economy (easing); selling them sucks cash out (tightening).

3. Forward Guidance: This is essentially the Fed “talking” the market into a certain mood. By telling us what they plan to do in late 2026, they influence long-term mortgage and auto loan rates today.

How the Fed Affects the Stock Market

For investors, the Fed is the ultimate trendsetter. How the Fed affects the stock market comes down to two main factors: The Cost of Capital and The Discount Rate.

• Corporate Profits: When the Fed keeps rates lower, companies can borrow money cheaply to expand, hire, and innovate. This usually leads to higher earnings and, consequently, rising stock prices.

• The Valuation Math: Investors use a “discount rate” to value future company earnings. When interest rates are low, those future dollars are worth more today. This is why “growth” and tech stocks often skyrocket when the Fed signals a dovish (lower rate) stance.

• The Yield Chase: When the Fed lowers rates, boring “safe” investments like CDs (certificates of Deposit) and Savings Accounts pay less. This forces investors to move their money into the stock market to find a decent return, driving prices even higher.

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From the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to Your Front Door

The Fed’s toolkit doesn’t just stay on Wall Street; it lives in your wallet. Here is how their 2026 strategy is currently dictating your lifestyle:

• Mortgages & Housing: Even though the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, they move in tandem with the 10-year Treasury yield, which is heavily influenced by Fed policy. If you’re looking to buy a home this spring, you’re essentially betting on the Fed’s next move.

• Credit Cards & Variable Debt: Most credit cards have a variable APR tied to the Prime Rate. When the Fed cuts by 0.25%, your interest charges eventually drop, too. It’s a slow win, but a win nonetheless.

• The “K-Shaped” Reality: In 2026, we are seeing a “K-shaped” impact. Those with assets (stocks and homes) are seeing their wealth grow as the Fed supports the market, while those relying on wages may still be feeling the pinch of persistent inflation in groceries and rent.

The Bottom Line for 2026

The Federal Reserve is currently walking a tightrope. They want to support GDP growth without letting inflation creep back above 3%. Whether you are a day trader or just someone trying to pay off a car loan, you are playing in a stadium designed by the Fed.

Keep your eyes on the “Dot Plot” (future interest rates projections) and the FOMC press conferences. In this economy, the Fed isn’t just a central bank—it’s the architect of your financial future.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

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White House announces new EU tariffs over Greenland

President Trump announced a new round of escalating tariffs on eight NATO allies this Saturday, aiming to pressure them into a “Complete and Total purchase of Greenland“. Starting February 1, goods from nations including Denmark, Germany, and the U.K. will face a 10% tariff, which is scheduled to spike to 25% by June.

President Trump signing documents in the Oval Office (Courtesy of The White House)

The President justified the move by claiming these nations have moved troops into the territory for “purposes unknown,” calling it a danger to global security. The administration appears to be utilizing broad executive powers to bypass existing trade deals, framing the acquisition of the Danish territory as a vital national security priority.

European leaders have blasted the move as “hostile,” with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson stating, “We will not allow ourselves to be blackmailed”. While the EU convenes an emergency meeting to coordinate a response, the U.S. Supreme Court could rule as early as next week on whether the President has the legal authority to impose these types of “emergency” penalties.

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Mortgage rates hit 3-year low as White House targets high housing costs

Mortgage rates have dropped to their lowest level in over three years, with the average 30-year fixed rate falling to 6.06%. Freddie Mac’s chief economist, Sam Khater, noted a significant jump in both home purchase applications and refinancing activity, signaling a strong start to the 2026 housing season.

Average 30 year Fixed Mortgage Rate (courtesy of Fox Business)

The decline follows a major move by President Trump, who recently ordered the government to purchase $200 billion in bonds to help drive down borrowing costs. FHFA Director William Pulte confirmed that an initial $3 billion round of purchases has already begun as the administration looks to ease the financial burden on families.

To further boost affordability, the President also proposed banning large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, arguing that hard-working Americans are being priced out of the market. While analysts at Realtor.com expect rates to stay in the low-6% range, they caution that the recovery will likely be a “gradual” process rather than an overnight boom.

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President Trump issues ultimatum to Cuba: “Make a deal!”

President Trump signaled a massive shift in Caribbean policy last week, vowing to halt all oil and financial support to Cuba. Posting on Truth Social, the President stated, “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO!” He urged the island nation to negotiate with the U.S. immediately before it is “too late.”

A few countries dominate world oil production (courtesy of Wikipedia maps)

This hardline stance follows the recent capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces. For decades, Venezuela served as Cuba’s primary energy lifeline, providing thousands of barrels of subsidized oil daily. With Maduro in custody and the U.S. now blockading Venezuelan exports, Cuba is facing severe power shortages and a crumbling economy.

To solidify this new energy landscape, Trump met with major oil executives as well to discuss returning American companies to Venezuelan oil fields. The President pledged to put U.S. refiners at the forefront of production, aiming to drive down energy prices while stripping Havana of its last major regional ally.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

Jerome Powell under Federal investigation!

This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announced that is under criminal investigation by the Justice Department. The investigation focuses on his testimony to Congress, where he appeared to explain the Federal Reserve’s ongoing $2.5 billion renovations of the central bank’s headquarters, and whether he committed perjury during his testimony to lawmakers.

US Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington, DC, on Dec. 10, 2025. - Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images

Powell is defending himself by claiming that this investigation is politically motivated: “The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President,” Powell said in a video statement published on the Federal Reserve’s X account.

CNBC reports that a DOJ spokesperson said, in a statement to the news outlet: “The Attorney General has instructed her US Attorneys to prioritize investigating any abuse of taxpayer dollars.”

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Iran ‘prepared’ for war but open to negotiating with the United States

After two weeks of violent unrest, Iran’s Foreign Minister claims their security forces have “full control” of the country. His comments come amid reports claiming that the Iranian government has reached out to President Trump after he declared that the US would be open to intervene in the conflict if protestors were killed.

On Sunday, President Trump spoke to reporters about the situation in Iran and the role that the United States could play: “They’re starting to, it looks like, and there seem to be some people killed that aren’t supposed to be killed,” the president said. “These are violent — if you call them leaders, I don’t know if they’re leaders or just if they rule through violence. And, we’re looking at some very strong options. We’ll make a determination.”

President Donald Trump spoke with reporters aboard Air Force One while traveling from his Mar-a-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Fla., to Joint Base Andrews on Sunday, Jan. 11, 2026. (Alex Brandon/AP)

The U.S. based Human Rights Activists News Agency reported that more than 10,600 people have been detained during the more than two weeks of protests, with hundreds of protestors killed during the demonstrations.

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President Trump announces a new 10% limit on credit card rates

This past week, President Trump announced a one-year cap that would limit interest to 10% on credit cards. The announcement comes amid a renewed push for affordability by the Trump Administration to try to provide some much needed relief to households affected by the current high prices and high interest rates environment.

“Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more, which festered unimpeded during the Sleepy Joe Biden Administration,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.

Banks and financial representatives have criticized this move, claiming that lower rates will stop banks from extending credit to borrowers with lower credit scores. Some people also argue that credit card companies won’t be able to offer users as many rewards through their points programs if rates are capped at 10%, since most credit card companies finance rewards through their fees.

Turning the Food Pyramid upside down!

This past week, Health Secretary Robert F. Kenndy released an updated version of the Food Pyramid, along with new dietary guidelines which represent a dramatic change from previous versions.

Previous versions of the Food Pyramid emphasized high consumption of bread, carbohydrates and simple sugars while discouraging animal fat and protein. The new and updated version turns this on its head.

Former version of the Food Pyramid that emphasized high carbohydrate and simple sugar consumption.

New version of the Food Pyramid, emphasizing fruits, vegetables and protein.

The new version of the Food Pyramid places emphasis on consuming non-processed, natural foods like meat, dairy and vegetables. Because these foods are non-processed, they are digested easily by our body. They also have very high nutritional value, so they provide us with much higher doses of all the vitamins and nutrients that our body needs.

The former Food Pyramid influenced food policy decisions for decades and is, in part, responsible for creating a society where more than 2 in 5 adults (42.4%) have obesity.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

Following a wild October and the avalanche of news that we got during this past November, we saw December wrap up a very lucrative year for stocks. After leaving behind the government shutdown that kept us worried this Fall season, December was the positive conclusion to a year that saw all three major indices return gains of over 12%.

The king of all three indices was the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 which, after battling concerns regarding an AI stock market bubble, finished the year up over 20%.

The Dow 30 finished the year at 48,063 points, up over 5,519 points from the beginning of the year and up 346 points from the start of December.

The S&P 500 closed out the year at 6,845 points, a gain of 963 points for the year and a slight loss of just 3 points for December.

The Nasdaq 100 closed out the year at 25,249 points, a gain of 4,237 points for the year and a loss of 185 points for December.

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Nicolás Maduro arrested by U.S. Forces

On the morning of January 3^rd, U.S. military forces arrested Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife during a raid that took place in the military compound in the Venezuelan capital of Caracas where the Maduros were hiding. In the pre-dawn hours of January 3, a wave of U.S. military aircraft—both piloted and remotely operated—struck key Venezuelan air defense systems, clearing the way for an air assault by special operations forces. Helicopters inserted the team at a heavily secured compound where Nicolás Maduro and his wife were staying. Shortly after touching down, the troops moved rapidly through the site and apprehended the Venezuelan leader and his wife, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, before they were able to seal themselves inside a secure room and await assistance from loyal military units.

President Donald Trump shared a photo of captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro aboard USS Iwo Jima after strikes on Venezuela, on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2026. (Donald Trump via Truth Social)

From the moment President Trump authorized the operation to the time the team departed Venezuelan airspace with both detainees, fewer than five hours passed. The operation was completed without any American casualties.

Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez, are responsible for turning what once was the most prosperous country in South America, into a totalitarian regime which has seen an estimated 8 million Venezuelans escape the country due to widespread poverty and political persecution.

U.S. officials including President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio have announced that the United States will be in charge of overseeing a transition process for Venezuela to become a democratic and prosperous country once again.

IRS issues guidance for No Tax on Tips and Overtime Deductions for 2026

The IRS has issued initial guidance explaining how the “no tax on tips” and “no tax on overtime” provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) will work for workers claiming deductions beginning with the 2025 tax year.

The legislation was signed into law by President Donald Trump in July after it cleared Congress with Republican support in a party-line vote. The measure combined tax changes with new spending provisions.

Among its key features are deductions for qualified tip income and eligible overtime pay. As directed by the statute, the Treasury Department and the IRS are now outlining how workers should calculate and claim those deductions.

According to the IRS, taxpayers who qualify may need to separately calculate their tipped and overtime income for 2025, since Forms W-2 and 1099 will not yet include dedicated fields for those amounts. The agency’s guidance includes examples showing how the deductions apply depending on whether the income was formally reported or not.

Under the OBBBA, employees who earn qualifying tips may deduct up to $25,000 per year, with the benefit gradually reduced for individuals earning more than $150,000 in modified adjusted gross income, or $300,000 for joint filers. The IRS estimates roughly six million workers report tip income, and this deduction applies to tax years from 2025 through 2028. Separately, the overtime provision allows workers to deduct the portion of overtime pay that exceeds their standard wage—generally the additional “half” in time-and-a-half compensation—when that income is reported on a W-2, 1099, or similar statement. That deduction is capped at $12,500 annually, or $25,000 for joint filers, and phases out above the same income thresholds. Importantly, the overtime deduction is available whether or not a taxpayer itemizes deductions.

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Mortgage rates hit 2025 lows to finish the year

Prospective homebuyers are heading into 2026 with a modest tailwind, as mortgage rates closed out the year at their lowest point of 2025. According to Freddie Mac’s latest Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the average rate on a standard 30-year fixed mortgage slipped to 6.15%, down slightly from 6.18% the previous week.

Rates began 2025 near the 7% mark, making the year-end decline notable.

Average 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate – courtesy of Fox Business

“After opening the year close to 7%, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to its lowest level of 2025 in the final week of the year, which is a positive development for buyers as we enter the new year,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. Lower financing costs could ease affordability pressures in the housing market, even as other indicators point to economic momentum under President Donald Trump.

Earlier this month, the Bureau of Economic Analysis published its first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product, showing the economy expanded at a 4.3% annualized pace from July through September. That result exceeded the 3.3% growth forecast from economists surveyed by LSEG.

Looking ahead, would-be buyers are closely watching how aggressively the Federal Reserve may reduce interest rates in 2026. Minutes from the Fed’s December meeting revealed internal disagreement among policymakers, with two voting members favoring no rate cut and one pushing for a larger, 50-basis-point reduction. In addition, six officials’ economic projections indicated resistance to further easing.

Ultimately, the Fed approved a 25-basis-point cut for the third consecutive meeting in December, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%–3.75%. That move came amid signs of a cooling labor market while inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% goal, underscoring the tension between the Fed’s employment and price-stability objectives.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

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The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at its final policy meeting of the year. This takes place in contrast with high stock market valuations into November and December of this year and technology stocks that have analysts wondering if we are in the middle of an AI bubble.

The decision marked the central bank’s third consecutive rate cut, bringing total reductions since September to 0.75 percentage points and leaving the federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. In October it was hovering around 3.875%.

Those changes are expected to ripple through the economy, influencing the borrowing and savings rates faced by households.

Federal Reserve Rates from 2000 through 2025. Source: CNBC

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While the federal funds rate—set by the Federal Open Market Committee (which finally received some key economic reports after the government shutdown ended) —governs the interest rate banks charge one another for overnight loans rather than what consumers directly pay, changes to that rate still shape borrowing costs across the economy.

Many short-term consumer interest rates move in tandem with the prime rate, which generally sits about three percentage points above the federal funds rate. Longer-term rates, meanwhile, are also affected by inflation expectations and broader economic conditions.

Together, these dynamics mean the Fed’s latest rate cut could influence everything from credit cards and auto loans to mortgages, student debt, and savings yields.

The Interest Rate Cut Effect on Mortgage Rates

Mortgages represent the largest source of debt for most U.S. households, but long-term home loans tend to be less sensitive to changes in Federal Reserve policy. Rates on 15- and 30-year mortgages track Treasury yields and broader economic conditions more closely than the federal funds rate itself.

With the 10-year Treasury yield climbing amid concerns about stubborn inflation, mortgage rates have followed suit. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage has inched higher to roughly 6.35%, according to Mortgage News Daily as of December 9.

“Because mortgage rates are benchmarked to 10-year yields, it’s possible to see borrowing costs rise even after a rate cut,” said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School, pointing to how financial markets and investors respond to policy shifts.

That said, most homeowners carry fixed-rate mortgages, meaning their interest rate remains unchanged unless they refinance or purchase a new home.

Other types of home borrowing are more directly affected by the Fed’s moves. Adjustable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit are typically tied to the prime rate. While most ARMs reset annually, HELOC rates adjust almost immediately, allowing some borrowers to benefit more quickly from lower rates.

How a Fed rate cut could affect new car loans

Auto loans, like mortgages and credit cards, account for a meaningful portion of household spending. However, because most auto loans carry fixed interest rates, existing borrowers will not see their payments change as a result of the Fed’s latest cut.

Buyers who are currently shopping for a vehicle, though, may see some relief as borrowing costs ease. The average interest rate on a new car loan has declined to about 6.6%, according to Edmunds.

Even so, affordability remains strained. “Car shoppers are still navigating a difficult market, marked by record-high monthly payments and record loan balances on financed new-vehicle purchases,” said Joseph Yoon, a consumer insights analyst at Edmunds.

Data from Edmunds show that while the average annual percentage rate on new vehicles edged lower in November, the typical monthly payment climbed to a record $772. At the same time, the average amount financed for a new car reached a new high, approaching $44,000.

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How Fed rate cuts influence credit card interest rates

Most U.S. adults hold at least one credit card, and many carry balances from month to month, leaving them exposed to interest rates that often hover around 20% annually on revolving debt.

Because credit card rates are variable, they are closely tied to the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate. When the Fed lowers rates, the prime rate typically falls as well, and card APRs generally adjust within one or two billing cycles.

While a single quarter-point cut may offer limited relief given how elevated credit card rates remain, the cumulative impact of multiple reductions can become more meaningful over time—particularly compared with last year’s record-high borrowing costs, said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree.

“Taken together, those cuts could translate into hundreds of dollars in savings for borrowers,” Schulz said.

Why savings rates tend to decline after Fed rate cuts

For savers, the Fed’s easing cycle makes it increasingly important to stay proactive. While the central bank does not directly set deposit rates, yields on savings accounts generally move in line with changes to the federal funds rate.

Following the Fed’s recent cuts, the highest-yielding online savings accounts are now offering rates closer to 4%, down from nearly 5% a year earlier, according to Bankrate.

“Savings rates are going to continue drifting lower,” said Stephen Kates, a certified financial planner and financial analyst at Bankrate.

For savers who rely on high-yield accounts to meet a targeted return, that environment requires closer attention, Kates said. One potential option is locking in a longer-term certificate of deposit. While the average one-year CD pays about 1.93%, the top available rates exceed 4%, according to Bankrate.

“If you find you’re no longer keeping pace with inflation, that’s a clear signal it may be time to act,” Kates said.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

November was expected to be a tame month after a wild October, but it actually brought us an avalanche of stock market news this month. With the government shutdown finally over, The Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 turned positive in November after a tumultuous month marked by a brief panic regarding AI stocks. The Nasdaq 100 finished the month in the red after investors tried to figure out if tech stocks are in bubble territory or fairly priced. The Dow 30, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are still enjoying very healthy gains for the year with the indices up 12.16%, 16.45% and 21.05% respectively.

The Dow 30 finished the month at 47,716, up over 5,172 points from the beginning of the year and up 153 points from the start of November.

The S&P 500 closed out the month at 6,849 points, a gain of 967 points for the year and just up 9 points for November.

The Nasdaq 100 closed out the month at 25,435 points, a gain of 4,422 points for the year and a loss of 423 points for November.

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Cheaper Prices for Thanksgiving Dinner!

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, the cost of your traditional Thanksgiving dinner for 10 people is down from a year ago. This traditional meal includes sides like stuffing, rolls, sweet potatoes, peas, cranberries, a 16 pound turkey and items for dessert such as pumpkin pie – and it costs about $55.18 nationwide in 2025.

This traditional meal reached an all time-high in 2022, when it took $64.05 to purchase it. This year, its price is down about 5% from its 2024 price level.

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, this is the average price for the same meal for the last 10 years:

· 2015: $50.11

· 2016: $49.87

· 2017: $49.12

· 2018: $48.90

· 2019: $48.91

· 2020: $46.90

· 2021: $53.31

· 2022: $64.05

· 2023: $61.17

· 2024: $58.08

· 2025: $55.18

Peace in Ukraine before Christmas?

This past week, several news outlets have reported that Ukraine is willing to move forward with a framework for a peace deal backed by the United States. This deal would end the yearslong war between Russia and the Ukraine that started in 2022 when Russia launched their military offensive against their European neighbor.

President Trump stated at the White House this past week that the U.S. is “getting very close to a deal”. He also posted on social media that there are just “a few remaining points of disagreement” between the different countries involved in this negotiation process. The U.S. President also announced that he would be meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “when the deal to end this War is FINAL or, in its final stages.”

A Russian official told reporters earlier this week that Russia hasn’t received any official documents with a draft of the peace deal. Steve Witkoff (U.S. Special Envoy) is scheduled to travel to Russia this week to meet with Putin.

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Consumer Confidence Hits Lowest Point Since April

The Conference Board’s November report revealed a sharp decline in consumer confidence. The survey found that consumers are feeling specially pessimistic about the current economy and their ability to find a job.

“Consumers were notably more pessimistic about business conditions six months from now,” stated Dana Peterson, who currently serves as The Conference Board’s Chief Economist. “Mid-2026 expectations for labor market conditions remained decidedly negative, and expectations for increased household incomes shrunk dramatically, after six months of strongly positive readings.”

Consumers also stated that they expect inflation to continue pushing prices higher, leaving them with less money to spend on discretionary items.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

What Exactly Is a Stock Market Bubble?

A stock market bubble occurs when asset prices rise far beyond their underlying economic value. It’s not just optimism — it’s irrational optimism driven by speculation, hype, and the fear of missing out.

The classic bubble pattern

Every bubble follows the same 5-stage pattern:

1. Displacement
   Something new captures investor attention — a technology, policy shift, or trend.

2. Boom
   Prices rise rapidly as investors pile in.

3. Euphoria
   The belief that prices will never fall. This is where risk-taking peaks.

4. Profit-taking
   Savvy investors start quietly selling.

5. Panic / Crash
   Prices collapse as fear replaces euphoria.

Graph depicting the bubble period and crash of the Housing Bubble of 2008.

If this sounds familiar, it should — from the Dot-Com Boom, Housing Bubble of 2008, and even parts of the Crypto Surge in 2021, history shows how quickly sentiment can flip.

Graph depicting the bubble period and crash of the Nasdaq Index during the Dot-Com Boom of the early 2000s.

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Why Bubbles Happen: A Behavioral Perspective

Bubbles are rarely about fundamentals. They’re driven by human psychology:

✓ FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)

When everyone seems to be making money, nobody wants to be left behind.

✓ Herd Mentality

Investors copy one another — not because it’s smart, but because it feels safe.

✓ Easy Money Conditions

Low interest rates and abundant liquidity make risk-taking feel less risky.

✓ Narratives > Numbers

Stories become more compelling than valuations.
(”AI will change everything”… “This time is different”… sound familiar?)

These emotional drivers can inflate prices well beyond sustainable levels.

Are We in a Bubble Right Now?

Today’s market displays bubble-like pockets, but not necessarily a full-blown market-wide bubble.

Here are the strongest indicators analysts watch:

📌 High Valuations

Certain sectors — tech in particular — are trading at price-to-earnings multiples far above historical averages.

📌 Concentration Risk

A handful of mega-cap stocks have been responsible for most index gains, which makes the market more fragile.

📌 Retail Speculation Spikes

Search interest, social sentiment, and small-account trading activity often rise before corrections.

📌 Economic Headwinds

As we discussed in Shutdown No More, the government’s fiscal uncertainty and ongoing budget gridlock continue to create volatility beneath the surface.

📌 Mixed Signals From the Labor Market

Strong job growth and inflation trends help fundamentals… but long-term risks remain, including high federal debt, a slowing manufacturing sector, and tightening financial conditions.

Conclusion:
We’re not in universal bubble territory — but certain parts of the market are showing classic warning signs.

How to Protect Yourself From a Stock Market Bubble

The good news? You don’t need to predict exactly when a bubble will burst. You simply need to build a portfolio that can withstand one.

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Here’s how:

1. Diversify Honestly — Not Just on Paper

Many investors believe they’re diversified because they own several stocks.
But if they’re all in tech? Or all in U.S. equities?
That’s not diversification — that’s concentration with extra steps.

True diversification includes:

• Large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks

• U.S. and international exposure

• Bonds (short and intermediate-term)

• Real assets or commodities

• Potentially cash as dry powder

Diversification won’t guarantee gains — but it dramatically reduces catastrophic losses.

2. Avoid Momentum Chasing

If the only reason you’re buying something is because the price is going up… you’re already behind.

Ask yourself:

“Is the underlying company truly growing, or am I reacting to hype?”

Let fundamentals guide decisions — not fear.

3. Use Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)

Investing the same amount regularly helps you:

• Reduce timing risk

• Avoid emotional buy/sell decisions

• Smooth out volatility over time

Most of the world’s best long-term investors swear by it.

4. Maintain a Cash Buffer

Cash is a strategic asset during bubbles.

It gives you:

• A cushion if markets fall

• The opportunity to buy good assets at a discount

• Lower stress during periods of volatility

Even a small allocation helps.

5. Look at Valuations, Not Headlines

Good investors focus on:

• Earnings growth

• Balance sheet strength

• Cash flow

• Competitive advantages

Bubbles grow on stories; portfolios grow on mathematics.

6. Rebalance Periodically

If tech becomes too large a share of your portfolio, trim it.
If bonds become a much smaller portion, increase them.

Rebalancing forces you to:

• Sell high

• Buy low

• Maintain risk discipline

It’s one of the simplest, most powerful tools investors have.

Final Thoughts

Stock market bubbles aren’t inherently bad — they often accompany innovation and economic growth. But they can be devastating if you’re not prepared.

By understanding the psychology behind bubbles, maintaining true diversification, and sticking to disciplined investing habits, you can reduce risk while still participating in long-term market growth.

And as we saw in Shutdown No More, markets can behave unpredictably even when Washington finally solves a crisis. Staying informed — and building a resilient financial plan — is the best buffer against whatever comes next.

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Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 retreated from their all time highs this month, while still being up for the year. The three indices are up Year-To-Date 11.55%, 14.55% and 18.95% respectively.

The Dow 30 is valued at 47,457 points, down 106 points from the end of October.

The S&P 500 stands at 6,737 points, down 103 points from October 31^st.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 has fallen 865 points since the beginning of the month, standing now at 24,993 points.

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Shutdown No More!

On Wednesday night, President Donald Trump signed into law a short-term funding bill passed by Congress earlier that day, funding the government through January.

The bipartisan deal, which passed with the support of a handful of Democratic Senators, does not include an extension of enhanced Obamacare tax credits that the Democrats in the Senate and the House of Representatives had previously demanded.

The agreement that was ultimately passed and signed into law has certain key points:

1. Brings back funding for food stamps.

2. Reverses shutdown-related layoffs.

3. Approves backpay for government employees.

Airline cancellations to continue after shutdown ends

On Tuesday, Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy announced that airline restrictions won’t be automatically lifted after the government shutdown ends.

This week, aviation groups and lawmakers asked lawmakers not only to reopen the government, but also to provide more funding to the Department of Transportation to hire more air-traffic controllers and modernize air traffic control.

Airlines announced that, even with the government shutdown officially over, they will need time to adjust schedules and staffing. Travelers’ concerns mount as the Thanksgiving and Christmas travel season approaches, with millions of Americans expected to travel to celebrate the Holidays.

The Waiting is the Hardest Part

Investors continue to wait to see if the end of the government shutdown will bring back much awaited economic data that was not produced for the past couple of months.

“The shutdown of the Federal government has delayed nearly all Federal economic data releases for September and October,” reads a Goldman Sachs client letter from economists Elsie Peng and Ronnie Walker. “While the shutdown appears to be nearing its end, it will take time for the statistical agencies to work through the backlog of releases.”

It is expected that the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish a schedule with updated release dates sometime next week.

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Can you end the game with a Checkmate?

It’s white’s turn to play! Can you find the one move that ends the game with checkmate? Let us know what the move is on our Instagram page @themarketdispatch or on X @TheMrktDispatch

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices continued their advance this month, with the three indices up Year-To-Date 11.8%, 16.3% and 23.06% respectively.

The Dow 30 finished the month at 47,562, up over 5,000 points from the beginning of the year.

The S&P 500 closed out the month at 6,840 points, a gain of 958 points for the year.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index continues its bull run, reaching 25,858 points to finish October up by 4,845 points for 2025.

Inflation reading for September lower than anticipated by economists

The Consumer Price Index – the main indicator that economists look at to assess the rate of inflation for our economy – came in at 3% year over year during this month’s reading. This marks a downward trend when comparing it to the inflations highs we experienced during 2022, when inflation reached a yearly rate of 10%.

The CPI report had been initially delayed from its October 15 scheduled release date due to the current government shutdown. However, this month’s report was deemed critical and had to be released (even if it was past it’s originally scheduled date) since it is used by the Social Security Administration to calculate the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (a measure that affects about 75 million people).

Traders will be paying close attention to the progress being made on inflation since a lower number will continue putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates.

Powell pours cold water on investors’ hopes

This Wednesday the Federal Reserve announced a quarter point rate cut during their press conference. While the market had fully priced in this rate cut, investors were surprised to hear Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tell reporters not to take a December rate cut for granted.

“In the committee’s discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December,” declared Jerome Powell. “A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion. Far from it.”

The comments from the Chairman rattled the markets, leaving investors wondering if the highly anticipated cuts in interest rates will actually happen before Powell’s term expires in May of next year.

Trump and Xi meet again

During a highly anticipated trade meeting in South Korea Thursday, President Trump and President Xi reached an agreement to lower tariffs imposed on China while pausing export controls on rare earth minerals that China had imposed on the United States.

The American President announced he will visit China in April, and President Xi will also travel to the United States to continue trade discussions as well.

President Trump also announced that he lowered punitive tariffs imposed on China due to its role in trafficking fentanyl from 20% down to 10%. This brings the effective tariff rate on China to around 47% according to President Trump.

Russia on guard!

According to a post published by President Trump on his Truth Social platform, the American President has instructed the “Department of War” (as he referred to the Department of Defense on his post) to resume nuclear testing.

Across the ocean, the Kremlin reacted on Thursday by warning that Russia would “act accordingly” if the United States was to break the moratorium on nuclear weapons testing agreed on during the Cold War.

The announcement by the White House comes after Russia tested their Burevestnik long-range cruise missile, which features the ability to be equipped with nuclear warheads.

Can you checkmate the King?

It’s black’s turn to play! Can you find the one move that ends the game with checkmate? Let us know what the correct move is on our Instagram page or our X page TheMrktDispatch

Questions? Email us: editor@themarketdispatch.com

Disclaimer:
The information provided by The Market Dispatch is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or investment advice.

The Market Dispatch, its authors, and contributors are not financial advisors, brokers, or attorneys. Any opinions, analyses, or projections expressed are solely those of the authors and do not constitute specific recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal and capital. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any financial decisions or investments, you should consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional who understands your personal circumstances.

By reading this newsletter or using any related materials, you acknowledge and agree that The Market Dispatch and its team will not be held liable for any loss, damage, or expense incurred as a result of reliance on the information provided.